Original opinion writing on credit risk, project finance, emerging markets, and policy, grounded in the same models and research behind the work on this site.
Trump Accounts launched July 4, 2026. A look at what the design gets right and wrong about building financial standing from zero, and what emerging markets should take from it.
Read the full piece →Private equity LPs are demanding realized returns over paper marks in 2026. How that shift relates to, and differs from, the valuation discipline in my own LBO work.
Read the full piece →A balanced look at Kenya's Finance Bill 2026, citing IEA Kenya's structural critique, and why tax policy volatility matters more for business and employment than any single rate.
Read the full piece →S&P 500 concentration has exceeded dot-com peaks. An honest look at what my Oracle DCF actually captured, and what it doesn't yet answer about AI-driven revenue.
Read the full piece →Rising PIK usage is flagged as a red flag across the $2 trillion private credit market. What separates disciplined structuring from reactive distress.
Read the full piece →Why currency mismatch, not weak underwriting, is the binding constraint on mobilizing private capital into African markets, and how TCX and local-currency bonds are responding.
Read the full piece →A project finance case study on why lenders and sponsors are underwriting the same model for two different answers, and why the coverage ratio matters more than the return.
Read the full piece →Subprime auto delinquencies hit a 32-year record in early 2026. What my own research on stress-period credit models suggests, and what it doesn't yet confirm.
Read the full piece →Why collateral and contract design carry more underwriting signal than credit history in thin-file markets, and what that means for lenders extending credit in Africa.
Read the full piece →Auto loans are a $1.3 trillion market tied to employment and wages. What the causal literature shows, and where my own inference goes further than the evidence alone.
Read the full piece →The CFPB corrected a decade-old estimate on credit invisibility in the US. The real population that matters is larger than assumed.
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