Projects & Research

LBO & DCF Valuation · IT Services Buyout (Sponsor-Backed)

A private equity sponsor needed a second opinion on a UK IT services buyout before committing capital. I built the LBO from a single assumptions tab: full sources and uses, a cap table with management rollover and sweet equity, a multi tranche debt schedule with PIK notes, and a returns waterfall by stakeholder class. Checked against a standalone DCF, the entry multiple of roughly 8.2x EBITDA held up, and sponsor returns climbed to a 23% IRR and 3.0x MOIC by 2030, a defensible basis for negotiation.

LBO / DCF Model

Entry ~8.2x EV/EBITDA · Sponsor IRR ~23% by 2030 · MOIC 3.0x

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Demand Planning & Forecasting Stand-Up · PE-Backed F&B Manufacturer

A PE-backed food and beverage manufacturer had grown revenue to nearly $78M, yet one planner was still running a single blended forecast across three very different product lines. I rebuilt the process from the ground up: separate forecast logic per line, reconciled to one board-level view, every variance traced back to its driver. Accuracy landed at 8.7% MAPE with near-zero bias, and the mature line held within 5% of forecast every month, giving leadership a demand-planning function built to scale rather than one dependent on a single person.

FP&A / Demand Planning

8.7% MAPE · Near-zero bias · $78M revenue scale

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Eco-Luxury Resort · East Africa Project Finance

A sponsor planning an off-grid eco-luxury resort on a remote island needed to know if the numbers held up before approaching lenders. I built a ten-year model with four scenarios, a bottom-up construction budget with freight and contingency built in, and a debt schedule stress-tested for coverage through the ramp-up period. The base case came back with an 18% unlevered return and roughly 21% on the equity, but the real value sat in what the model caught: debt coverage dipped below 1.0x during ramp-up, and construction costs were tracking ahead of the sponsor's own budget, the class of finding that changes deal terms before close, not after.

Project Finance

Unlevered IRR ~18% · Levered IRR ~21% · MOIC ~6x

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US PUBLIC MARKETS COVERAGE

The private-market work above is deal-specific and sponsor-facing. The three entries below apply the same bottom-up valuation discipline, an independently derived cost of capital, explicit terminal-value assumptions, and a triangulated buy-side thesis, to US-listed equities: Oracle and Coca-Cola, priced the way an institutional research desk would price them, not the way a stock screener would.

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) · Investment Thesis

I built an intrinsic-value case for Coca-Cola anchored to a properly derived cost of capital rather than a multiple pulled off a screener. The model pointed to a fair value near $70 a share, roughly 10% above where the market had it priced, a thesis built to hold up under direct questioning from an investment committee, not a headline number offered without support.

Equity Deck

Intrinsic $70.12 · +10.32% upside · WACC 7.3%

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Oracle Corporation (ORCL) · DCF Valuation

Oracle's shift toward cloud ERP changes the earnings quality of the business, and I wanted to know whether the market had actually priced that shift in. Working from a 10.16% weighted average cost of capital, the model put intrinsic value at $197.72 a share, about 15% above where the stock traded. That gap is the investment case in a single number, and the underlying model shows exactly where the value originates.

DCF Model

Intrinsic $197.72 · +15.17% upside · WACC 10.16%

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Oracle Corporation (ORCL) · Investment Pitch

Once the valuation work was done, I built the buy-side case to go with it: Oracle holding a 21% share of the cloud ERP market, and a five-year total return path north of 349% under base assumptions. This is the version built for an investment committee, where every assumption has to survive being challenged line by line.

Equity Deck

BUY · 21% Cloud ERP share · 349% 5-yr total return

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CASE STUDIES

Three engagements, in depth.

Problem, approach, and result: the full arc behind three representative pieces of work.

LBO / DCF
0–6 mo

LBO & DCF Valuation · IT Services Buyout (Sponsor-Backed)

Private equity sponsor · UK IT services target, ~£19M enterprise value

Problem: A PE sponsor needed an independent, defensible valuation before committing capital to a buyout with a complex structure: senior debt tranches, PIK loan notes, management rollover, and a sweet-equity pool. The sponsor also had to know whether the entry multiple was justified across exit horizons.

Approach: Built an integrated LBO and DCF model from a single assumptions tab: full sources-and-uses, a diluted cap table with management rollover and sweet equity, a multi-tranche debt and PIK interest schedule, a returns waterfall by stakeholder class, and a bottom-up WACC (relevered beta, CAPM) with both perpetuity-growth and exit-multiple terminal values; valuation triangulated across LBO and DCF.

Result: A defensible valuation range of ~7.2x–10.8x EV/EBITDA, converging near the ~8.2x entry multiple and confirming the price was supportable. Returns modeling showed sponsor IRRs scaling from ~5% on an early exit to ~23% by 2030 (3.0x MOIC), with management reaching ~4.5x, giving leadership a stakeholder-by-stakeholder basis to negotiate and structure the deal.

FP&A
12–24 mo

Demand Planning & Forecasting Stand-Up · PE-Backed F&B Manufacturer

Consumer goods manufacturer, ~$78M revenue, three product lines

Problem: Revenue had nearly doubled in two years, but demand planning hadn't scaled: one planner ran a single blended forecast across a start-up beverage line, a scaling snack line, and a mature core-SKU line. The result: simultaneous stockouts and excess inventory, no reconciliation of forecast to board plan, unmodeled promotions, no accuracy KPIs, and key-person risk.

Approach: Stood up a documented, repeatable demand-planning discipline: separate forecast logic per line, reconciled to a single board-level view, with variances traced to specific drivers and accuracy tracked against a formal KPI rather than explained after the fact.

Result: Forecast accuracy reached ~8.7% MAPE with near-zero bias inside the pilot window; the mature line held a 100% hit-rate within ±5% of forecast every month. The function moved from a fragile, single-person spreadsheet to a scalable process resilient to key-person risk.

Project
Finance · 0–6 mo

Integrated Project-Finance & Valuation Model · Eco-Luxury Resort (East Africa)

Sponsor, phased off-grid resort development, remote lake island · Emerging Markets private debt structuring

Problem: A sponsor needed an investment-grade model to test viability before committing capital and approaching lenders: USD-priced capital goods against KES-linked revenue, uncertain financing terms, and an unverified headline cost figure left returns, debt capacity, and downside risk all unknown.

Approach: Built a 10-year integrated model with a four-scenario engine (downside/base/sponsor/upside) driving occupancy ramp and ADR across all tabs: a bottom-up CAPEX with freight/install multipliers and contingency, a RevPAR-driven revenue build, an amortizing debt schedule with DSCR, and two-way IRR sensitivity grids on the key value drivers.

Result: A defensible return range across scenarios (base-case unlevered IRR ~18%, levered equity IRR ~21%, MOIC ~6x) and a stabilized EBITDA margin near 39%. Surfaced two decision-critical findings: minimum DSCR fell below 1.0x during ramp-up (flagging need for an interest reserve), and bottom-up CAPEX exceeded the sponsor's stated budget, exposing a Phase 1 under-budgeting gap.

The models behind the numbers.

Three engagements, in depth.

Eco-Luxury Resort, at a glance.